Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 97.5 (-165/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.75 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to garner 11.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Justin Jefferson has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (111.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 71.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.