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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 80.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to accumulate 10.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 138.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (58.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.6%).
  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, surrendering 7.42 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
  • The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

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