Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 80.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to accumulate 10.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 138.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (58.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.6%).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, surrendering 7.42 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.