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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -107.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Justin Jefferson has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.4% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Justin Jefferson's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.2% to 73.3%.

Justin Jefferson grades out in the 89th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.46 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.

Justin Jefferson has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (108.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).

Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.

The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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