Justin Herbert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 1:47 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+622/-789).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Chargers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
With an atrocious ratio of only 0.00 touchdowns on the ground per game (3rd percentile), Justin Herbert rates among the weakest running QBs in football this year.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Houston's DE corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (57.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
The model projects the Chargers to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.84 seconds per snap.
While Justin Herbert has received 7.7% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Los Angeles's running game near the goal line in this contest at 19.5%.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Justin Herbert's 61.6% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a substantial drop-off in his passing precision over last season's 64.7% figure.

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