Justin Herbert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 4:33 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+574/-967).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -967.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Chargers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may drop.
The running touchdown field reads "0" on Justin Herbert's box scores this year.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.57 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in football (57.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Chargers.
In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.84 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-slowest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.
While Justin Herbert has received 8.3% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Los Angeles's running game near the goal line this week at 20.3%.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks as the worst in football this year.
Justin Herbert's 59.3% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a material reduction in his passing precision over last season's 64.8% rate.

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