Justin Herbert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+567/-614).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are enormous -7.5-point underdogs.
This year, Justin Herbert has not scored any touchdowns on the ground.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
With a 51.5% rate of running the ball near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the league in these cases has been the Chargers.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Chargers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The model projects Justin Herbert to throw 32.1 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.
The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to be a more important option in his offense's run game near the goal line in this week's contest (19.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).

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