Justin Herbert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Sep 30, 2026 1:57 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+571/-720).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Chargers, who are giant -7-point underdogs.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.5 per game on average).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) since the start of last season.
Justin Herbert has been among the leading TD throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 1.45 per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Opposing teams have run for the fewest touchdowns in the league (0.45 per game) vs. the Seahawks defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers rank as the 9th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 50.0% red zone run rate.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Chargers are expected by the model to call just 62.9 offensive plays in this game: the 11th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The model projects Justin Herbert to throw 31.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.
While Justin Herbert has accounted for 5.6% of his offense's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Los Angeles's run game near the goal line in this week's game at 21.7%.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Chargers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season.