Justin Herbert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+491/-609).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Chargers, who are heavy -7-point underdogs.
The 4th-most plays in the league have been run by the Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.4 per game on average).
With an exceptional ratio of 1.47 per game (75th percentile), Justin Herbert places among the top TD throwers in football since the start of last season.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been awful since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in football.

Favors Under

Right now, the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (58.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Chargers.
The projections expect the Chargers to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats deflated) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We ought to be able to expect some regression with windier conditions in this game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 31.6 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs.

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