Justin Herbert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+525/-567).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (58.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
Justin Herbert has been among the best TD passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 1.50 per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chargers being a massive 7-point favorite this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 52.8% of their plays: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see only 126.2 total plays called: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.
This week, Justin Herbert is expected by the projections to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.0.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.

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