Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 12:42 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-275/+195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Chargers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Houston's group of LBs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in football.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (57.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
The model projects the Chargers to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.84 seconds per snap.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Justin Herbert's 61.6% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a substantial drop-off in his passing precision over last season's 64.7% figure.
With a very bad rate of only 0.71 per game (12th percentile), Justin Herbert has been as one of the worst touchdown passers in the league this year.

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