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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+114/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are an enormous 8-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 54.1% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL in the red zone (52.5% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Los Angeles Chargers.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (only 55.4 per game on average).

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