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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+153).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -171 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 65.4% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.

The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 6th-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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