Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-108/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 4th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 42.4% run rate.
Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to notch 4.8 rush attempts this week, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert isn't afraid to take off running, making up 17.2% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 87th percentile among quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert checks in as one of the best quarterbacks in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.21 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Chargers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.84 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-slowest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may drop.
Justin Herbert has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (20.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).
Justin Herbert's 4.18 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season signifies a significant diminishment in his rushing prowess over last season's 6.78 figure.

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