Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 3, 2024 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the tough Cleveland Browns run defense has allowed a feeble 4.86 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's running game: the 24th-lowest rate in football.

Favors Under

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a mere 56.1 per game on average).
After making up 14.1% of his team's rush attempts last year, Justin Herbert has played a smaller part in the running game this year, currently sitting at only 7.5%.
Justin Herbert's 13.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a meaningful reduction in his rushing prowess over last season's 19.0 mark.
The Browns linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.