Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 19, 2024 7:06 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Denver's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Chargers to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 36.7% run rate.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.81 seconds per snap.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
This year, the porous Denver Broncos run defense has been torched for a staggering 3.88 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's ground game: the 30th-biggest rate in the league.