Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are an enormous 8-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 45.9% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (only 55.4 per game on average).
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.
Justin Herbert has been a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this year (7.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (14.1%).
Justin Herbert's 11.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season illustrates a noteworthy regression in his rushing ability over last season's 19.0 rate.

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