Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to total 4.0 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.
After taking on 9.7% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, Justin Herbert has had a larger role in the run game this season, currently making up 15.1%.
Justin Herbert's 21.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season reflects a substantial boost in his running skills over last season's 8.0 rate.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
The Los Angeles offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football last year at opening holes for runners.

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