Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+110/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (13.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 7th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 36.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Justin Herbert has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (10.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).