Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (13.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 32.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to earn 2.8 carries this week, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

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