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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+377/-758).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +432 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +377.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.

The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Justin Herbert has rushed for 0.17 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (81st percentile).

The Kansas City Chiefs safeties project as the 32nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.6% red zone run rate.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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