Justin Herbert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+429/-964).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +440 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +429.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the goal line this week (15.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.3% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 38.7% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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