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Justin Herbert
NFL · Player Props
Justin Herbert
QB · Los Angeles Chargers
Rushing TD
Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022 Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST
NFL Props Justin Herbert Rushing TD

Justin Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+429/-964).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +440 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +429.

Favors Over
  • The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.4 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the goal line this week (15.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.3% in games he has played).
  • The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 38.7% red zone run rate.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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