Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 26, 2024 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 261.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 257.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 261.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (41.7 per game) this year.
This year, the weak Ravens defense has surrendered a colossal 310.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the most in the league.
The Ravens pass defense has displayed weak efficiency this year, surrendering 8.47 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the league.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chargers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Chargers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.
Justin Herbert's 207.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a remarkable drop-off in his passing proficiency over last year's 248.0 mark.
With a weak 62.6% Adjusted Completion% (23rd percentile) this year, Justin Herbert stands among the least accurate passers in the NFL.
The Ravens safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

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