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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 269.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 266.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 269.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.

Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Chicago Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.

With a terrific tally of 269.0 adjusted passing yards per game (86th percentile), Justin Herbert places as one of the leading passers in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

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