Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 16, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 283.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 282.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 283.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.0 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 5th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.