Justin Herbert Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Pass Attempts

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Sep 30, 2026 2:17 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-130/-100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Chargers, who are giant -7-point underdogs.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.5 per game on average).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chargers rank as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 52.4% pass rate.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Chargers are expected by the model to call just 62.9 offensive plays in this game: the 11th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The model projects Justin Herbert to throw 31.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.

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