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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Completions
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) this year.

This year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons defense has been gouged for a whopping 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

With a lackluster 62.0% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Justin Herbert rates as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in football.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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