Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 1, 2024 3:46 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) this year.
This year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons defense has been gouged for a whopping 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
With a lackluster 62.0% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Justin Herbert rates as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in football.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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