Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 2:02 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-113/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +113 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in football (42.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Chargers.
The model projects Justin Herbert to total 4.7 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs.
Accounting for 17.0% of his offense's run game usage this year (89th percentile when it comes to QBs), Justin Herbert's mobility makes him a dangerous weapon in the run game.

Favors Under

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Chargers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.
The model projects the Chargers to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.84 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Houston's DE corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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