Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-161).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -149 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 44.6% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
In this contest, Justin Herbert is forecasted by the projections to notch the 9th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 5.1.
Making up 16.3% of his offense's rush attempts this year (83rd percentile among QBs), Justin Herbert's mobility makes him a major weapon with his legs.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are enormous -7.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Chargers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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