Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:17 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chargers being a massive 7-point favorite this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.3% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to accumulate 5.6 carries in this contest, on average: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks.
After comprising 17.5% of his team's rush attempts last season, Justin Herbert has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this season, now sitting at 23.8%.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and approaches of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 27.01 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Las Vegas's unit has been excellent since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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