Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-102/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This week, Justin Herbert is forecasted by the model to accrue the 9th-most carries among all QBs with 5.2.
Justin Herbert isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, accounting for 17.5% of his offense's carries last year, putting him in the 85th percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles profile as the best DT corps in football last year in regard to stopping the run.