Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-139/+102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Justin Herbert has been a much bigger part of his offense's run game this season (15.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.7%).

Favors Under

Right now, the 5th-least run-centric offense in the league (34.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year at blocking for the run game.
The Patriots safeties grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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