Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The Green Bay Packers defensive ends grade out as the 9th-worst DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
When talking about opening holes for runners (and the influence it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year.

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