Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to notch 3.0 carries in this game, on average: the 11th-least of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

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