Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-260).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard game plan.
With a 64.3% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL under these circumstances has been the Chicago Bears.
The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.0 per game) this year.
With a terrific rate of 2.20 per game (97th percentile), Justin Fields rates as one of the leading TD throwers in the league this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in football against the Vikings defense this year (80.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.72 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.
The predictive model expects Justin Fields to attempt 29.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-fewest out of all QBs.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.

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