Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-240/+195).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +195.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Justin Fields has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 1.75 per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
The Commanders defense has allowed the 9th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.50 per game this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 53.9% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
In this week's game, Justin Fields is predicted by the model to total the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 27.5.

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