Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-159/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -157 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season (72.6%).
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded the most passing touchdowns in football: 1.79 per game since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 54.8% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 30.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
Justin Fields has been among the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 60.3% Completion%, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

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