Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 18, 2023

Updated Jan 8, 2024 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+190/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +195 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
With a 57.3% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league in these cases has been the Bears.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
This year, the feeble Packers defense has been gouged for a whopping 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to pass on 52.1% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects the Bears to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
In this week's contest, Justin Fields is projected by the predictive model to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.6.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

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