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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -260.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

With a 58.2% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in this setting has been the Chicago Bears.

This year, the porous Lions defense has yielded a whopping 1.67 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-highest rate in the league.

The Lions safeties rank as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.

In this week's contest, Justin Fields is expected by the predictive model to wind up with the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 27.0.

The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

This year, the stout Lions defense has conceded a meager 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-best rate in the NFL.

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