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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-278).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -278.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

With a 59.3% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league in these cases has been the Bears.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

With a terrific rate of 1.83 per game (81st percentile), Justin Fields rates among the best touchdown passers in the league this year.

This year, the feeble Detroit Lions defense has allowed a colossal 1.67 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-worst rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects Justin Fields to throw 29.9 passes this week, on average: the fewest among all quarterbacks.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.

Justin Fields checks in as one of the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 60.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 12th percentile.

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