Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-330/+235).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -330.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (72.8%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 48.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 52.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 24.1 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

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