Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the league vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (75.5%).
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 30.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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