Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the league against the Green Bay Packers defense this year (73.8%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.