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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +188 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season (71.9%).

The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Bears rank as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 53.2% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.

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