Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to run on 48.6% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
In this contest, Justin Fields is projected by our trusted projection set to earn the 4th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 7.9.
The Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
Justin Fields has been among the leading QBs in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.59 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 84th percentile.
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
After accounting for 30.9% of his team's carries last year, Justin Fields has had a smaller role in the rushing attack this year, currently accounting for just 22.2%.
Justin Fields's 31.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season indicates a a substantial regression in his running proficiency over last season's 73.0 figure.

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