Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Justin Fields to total 11.7 rush attempts in this contest, on balance: the most among all quarterbacks.
While Justin Fields has earned 29.8% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Chicago's ground game this week at 34.8%.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 9th-best in football last year.
Justin Fields grades out as one of the top QBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.10 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.87 seconds per play.
Justin Fields's 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a noteworthy reduction in his rushing talent over last year's 73.0 figure.
Justin Fields's 5.61 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year represents a noteable decline in his running skills over last year's 7.34 mark.
This year, the imposing Browns run defense has given up a mere 100.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-best in the league.

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