Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 3:04 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to earn 7.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (27.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.0% in games he has played).
Justin Fields has generated 33.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (91st percentile).
Justin Fields has been among the leading quarterbacks in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.72 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up just 4.10 yards-per-carry.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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