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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-455).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -438 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -455.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.6% red zone run rate.

Justin Fields isn't afraid to run the ball near the goal line, accounting for 25.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (82nd percentile among QBs).

Justin Fields has rushed for 0.20 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (89th percentile).

The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 6th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.

The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

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