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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+246/-397).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +260 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +246.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 45.2% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (14.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.9% in games he has played).

Justin Fields has rushed for 0.15 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among quarterbacks (75th percentile).

The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.72 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

More Justin Fields Player Props

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