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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 11

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-106/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 50.2% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (35.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.1% in games he has played).

Justin Fields has rushed for 0.60 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among QBs (100th percentile).

Opposing teams have run for the 5th-most TDs in the NFL (1.30 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.

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