Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 200.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 181.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 200.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard game plan.
The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.0 per game) this year.
Justin Fields's 232.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a a meaningful gain in his passing talent over last year's 149.0 mark.
With a fantastic 7.62 adjusted yards-per-target (82nd percentile) this year, Justin Fields places among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in football against the Vikings defense this year (80.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.72 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.
The predictive model expects Justin Fields to attempt 29.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-fewest out of all QBs.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.

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